North Korea steps back from the edge- again.
The leader of ‘The Democratic Republic of North Korea (it’s not democratic and it’s not a republic) Kim Jong-Un surprisingly and suddenly canceled his plans for military action yesterday- only a week after North Korean forces blew up a joint liaison center signaling an end to any planned cooperation with the south.
The abrupt U-turn came shortly after the Supreme Leader threatened to send troops to the border zone as escalations continued to rise over recent weeks, this time triggered by The North’s anger of Southern Activists sending balloons across the border containing anti-regime materials. North and South Korea technically remain at war since the 1953 ceasefire was implemented without a peace treaty.
With the orders of the stand-down coming from Kim himself, interestingly the previous rhetoric and orders of destruction and mobilization had reportedly come from his sister, Kim Yo-Jong who is seen as taking a more definitive role within the leadership of the party. You’ll remember a few weeks ago when the Supreme Leaders’ health was reportedly in decline, she was tipped to the next successor.
Kim Kong-Un and his sister Kim Yo-Jong (Getty Images)
The latest rise and decrease in escalation comes amidst the backdrop of failing (if not failed) negotiations between North Korea and The United States which had aimed to help curve the rogue state’s nuclear ambition. While these negotiations did lead to two historic meetings between the Supreme Leader and U.S President Trump, as well as South Korean President Moon Jae-in, they’ve ultimately led to nothing as all goodwill steps taken between the nations have been undone and any joint projects such as the Join Liaison Centre have been destroyed- dramatically.
And really, it was folly to expect any different. North Korea and South Korea (and their allies) are complete opposites and while they share the common goal of a unified Korea- massive wealth, political and cultural inequality prevent this from being a realistic option any time soon.
Trump has met Kim twice in person now, before the landmark negotiations ground to a halt.
Despite reports of mass poverty and low earnings, the north boasts one of the largest armies in the words in terms of manpower and by their own definition are considered to be a Nuclear Power.
The key fact is that Kim is simply too entrenched and too powerful in his current position to feel much pressure from external sources, and with China at his back (however begrudgingly) no negotiations can be expected to succeed without some of The North’s own goals being achieved.
With a US election looming, any chance of a revival in talks seems slim, leaving us to rely on the next presidential term to take us forward. While Democratic nominee Biden has completely ruled out any face to face meetings with Kim, a second Trump terms might see him come back for round three and finish what he started- for better or worse.
In the meantime, we’ll see how the situation develops on the ground. Unfortunately, I fear we won’t have to wait long for the next development.
