6 months on from the Normandy Format still shows no progress on the ground.

With only one main story filling our news-feeds and a worldwide lockdown still In effect across the globe, for some of us, stretching our minds back to the pre-COVID world might be a difficult task. For those who’ve forgotten, A Normandy Format meeting (which at the time was a big effort) took place in Paris in December 2019, which saw President’s Zelenskyy, Putin, Macron and Chancellor Merkel meet face to face, in order to set out commitments aimed at helping end the war in Eastern Ukraine. For those in need of a refresh, the video below details the 5 main commitments agreed at the meeting.

As you can tell from the above video- in December I wasn’t an optimist on things changing too much along the Ukrainian frontline. With years of political deadlock and a disregard for the Minsk Agreement Ceasefires, the idea of any sudden leap forward did seem unlikely- even with the new, young, energetic government in Kyiv. 6 months down the line it seems my gloomy outlook was, unfortunately, more accurate than I’d realized.

Let’s start with the good news, which coincides with the first commitment made. Shortly after the Normandy Format in December, Ukraine and the Russian backed separatists engaged in a massive prisoner exchange, which saw 200 prisoners swap hands-(still short of the overall target of ALL prisoners). While there was some outrage in Ukraine about handing over suspects of serious charges, the first step in securing the 5 commitments seemed to be going well, especially for those captives who had been detained since the start of the war in 2014.

Unfortunately, that’s where the progress and commitments stopped.

The next 4 commitments have since been dead in the water. While talks on further disengagement did continue for a time, they fell apart and were abandoned in February when both sides failed to agree on the 3 zones on which to disengage. Coupled with unconfirmed reports that the previous disengagement zone of Bogdanivka (see our report on that disengagement here) has now been rearmed, it seems that the disengagement process is going backward, and falling far short of the ‘2km zone across the entire frontline’ that was once rumored.

While a recommitment to the ceasefire seemed noble, it’s certainly no surprise that it didn’t happen, as previous ceasefires have always failed to hold. The OSCE has recorded 6,850 ceasefire violations within the first 2 weeks of June 2020, with the injury and mortality rate continuing to climb- amongst both soldiers and civilians.

As such, it’s not difficult to understand that the last two commitments became close to impossible. WIth no further talks or progress happening regarding elections in the uncontrolled territories, a second Normandy Format within the promised 4-month window would have ultimately become pointless, even if they would have agreed to meet. While it might be possible to blame these last two on Covid-19 and the lack of international oppertunity that came with it, both commitments were unlikely to be honoured while the issue of disengagement was being debated and ultimately abandoned in mid-Feburary,

To me, it seems such a pity that nothing solid came out of Normandy. The Normandy Format in December was a LONG time coming, I first heard whispers of it in the summer of 2019 and it took 6 months for the right conditions to be met, with both sides setting strict conditions. When a September date came and went, it seemed a miracle both sides had agreed to a pre-Christmas meeting. It was to be Zellenskyy’s big moment- his first face to face with Putin and the hopeful start of renewed relations as they walk the path to peace. Remember Zellensky made it one of his election goals to end the war in the east.

While we can be glad that a few more people can walk freely and aren’t in captivity, the backtracking of progress over the last 6 months really shows how far apart both Ukraine and Russia are on Donbas, and ultimately highlights the unanswerable question of what comes next? The only certainty is that while the political-machine grinds to a halt, the bullets and mortars will keep flying at the costly expense of those on the ground.