5 key points as the US-Afghanistan-Taliban peace talks begin
Peace talks between The Taliban and The US, Afghanistan and its allies officially began a few days ago on the 12th of September, having been delayed 6 months due to the continuation of Taliban attacks. Although the event is seen as a decent stepping stone, the task ahead is far from guaranteed as the US attempts to end its 19 year long campaign and bring stability to the region. With all this in mind, I’ve outlined the key 5 points to consider when looking at the process and progress of these landmark talks.
1: What role will the Taliban take in any peace deal?
Any peace agreement that wants to last simply must have a detailed plan for the future of each party involved, usually with strong methods for enforcing it. In instances of Unconditional Surrender, this is usually more straightforward- the winner gets his pick. But in the case of a stalemate after 19 years of war, things won’t be that simple.
The Taliban were removed from power in 2001, but have managed to keep its insurgency and message alive, and in the last decade have grown the numbers of their attacks, operations and fighters, with estimates of more that 60,000 fighters on the ground. Still considered a considerable force in the country and with an end goal of ruling all of Afghanistan , what conditions will the Taliban be happy to take in any peace talks? Would there be consideration or even satisfaction at a coalition government? While a power-sharing government might have worked in Northern Ireland, I doubt the success of The Good Friday Agreement be replicated in Afghanistan.
Another possible solution is partition- creating a Taliban-controlled state within Afghanistan. It might sound simple, but this is even more unlikely and fraught with more problems. The initial US-led invasion was to remove the Taliban from control of a state, and it’s unlikely they’d be satisfied at handing a smaller one back. And a presumed border between the Taliban State and Republic of Afghanistan would inevitably cause tension, ready to provide the spark to ignite future conflict.
Coalition forces have been present in Afghanistan since 2001
2: What assurances can the Taliban give?
Even if the conditions were clear and agreed easily upon all sides- there’s really no word the Taliban could give that western nations could trust. These peace talks have already been delayed by their attacks, which continued as talks commenced. Although they have an official head and command structure, led by Hibatullah Akhundzada, The Taliban doesn’t operate like a formal government, with structure, institutions and tradition.
Their insurgency is a fractured network, arrayed with well armed splinter groups and cells in many different countries, claiming attacks in their name. It’s specifically designed like this, making it impossible for The West to “chop off the head of the snake’ but in turn has become wild and untameable. Just because the leaders agree to the peace terms, there’s no guarantee their followers will, or even that the Taliban Command can make them.
The Taliban would also need to give assurances that they’d stop supporting other groups, particularly Al-Qaeda, who are among their biggest financiers.
The majority of Afghans want peace.. even if it means peace with concessions
3: The West are eager to end the war.. maybe too eager?
The war on terror is only a year shy of being a two decade stint- and the longest military operation in U.S history. Not only has this war cost lives, it’s become increasingly expensive to maintain and harder to justify. Far from seeing any solid results, the last decade has seen a resurgence of The Taliban and other Insurgent groups, and seen an increase of terrorist attacks in western countries from would be sympathisers. It’s hard to argue now that the world is any safer than it was 19 years ago, although of course no attack on western soil has ever matched 9/11 for its death toll (the same cannot be said for the groups middle east targets).
As such, the West is looking for an out and it’s no secret. Both Obama and Trump pledged it, the general opinion of the American people support pulling out and every year it gets harder to justify the recourses. But the US must be careful! Any motion of looking too eager will only support The Talibans hand and possibly cause them to delay. It is much cheaper for them to operate than it is the the US. For a reasonable deal to be reached and then maintained, I think we’ll see coalition troops in the country for many years to come.
4: Afghanistan hasn’t known a stable peace since 1979.
While this point might not be as strong as its predecessors, it’s worth noting the troubled past of Afghanistan since the Soviet invasion, and how this affects the peace process.
Peace is a very hard thing to bring to a country that hasn’t known it for 40 years- especially within the last 40 years, where the world has changed so rapidly around it. As the US found in 2001-2004 as it attempted to install a friendly Afghan regime, rebuilding from the rubble is hard, and memory alone isn’t strong enough to build almost from scratch, or put things ‘how they should be’.
Over 70% of the people in Afghanistan have never known peace. Having been born and raised in times of war, there are no “good old days” nor fond memories for them to get back to nor any solid institutions to restore what once was. While the majority of civillians want peace, even peace with concessions, It’ll be incredibly hard to forge a solid idea of what peace goals they will accept and what place Afghanistan will have in an ever growing world. For many, they’ll be looking for their own version of “The New Normal”.
With thousands of different tribes, several ethnic groups, and many different interpretations of Islam, Afghanistan will continue to struggle to put aside it’s internal fighting (which groups like The Taliban stir so well) and start backing national unity if it ever wants to take a place on the world stage.
Over 70% of the people in Afghanistan have never known peace
5: How long will the west keep its troops in the country?
Let’s say that things go smoothly, the mistrust is put aside, and something of a deal looks within reach… we need to consider how it’s going to be monitored. The US and its allies will no doubt insist on keeping troops in the country- but for how long can this last? The spiralling costs pointed out earlier makes it unlikely they can stay indefinitely- but what goals or aims should we be looking for before we can confidently pull out every last troop?
Trust will be the strongest factor here but that takes years, if not decades to build. The US will need to see a strong and loyal Afghan Government before it’ll pull out completely, alongside a Taliban settled and confined to its new role, whatever the peace talks dictate that be.
And what happens if The West pulls out too much, too early and the Taliban reneges on their commitments? Will we then see a scenario of ‘re-invasion’ setting the chain of events off again, or do we sit and watch as all the sacrifice and cost of the last 20 years gets washed away?
All of this of course, alongside MANY more factors will be thought out deeply by both sides during the upcoming negotiations, which will likely take years to see even any small progress. While the Afghanistan president Ashraf Ghani has said these peace talks “can’t fail”, I fear asking the Taliban to give up any of their operations and attacks while the talks continue is nothing short of impossible.
